Record cocoa costs fuel bar shrinkage and price hikes, as global supply crisis deepens
Dubai: Chocolate lovers in the UAE and Saudi Arabia may have noticed their favorite treats are either getting smaller, more expensive, or simply less chocolatey. There’s a reason: the world is in the middle of a severe cocoa crisis, and it's hitting both chocolate makers and consumers hard.
According to multiple media reports, a mix of extreme weather, diseased trees, and illegal mining has slashed cocoa harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together supply nearly 70% of the world’s cocoa. Output is expected to fall by 10% in the 2025/26 season, with Ghana producing just 500,000 metric tons, nearly half of what it did just a few years ago, according to Reuters.
This has sent cocoa prices skyrocketing. Future contract prices briefly hit a record $10,750 per ton in January, and still hover above $9,400, according to FoodNavigator. That’s more than double the average from two years ago.
And it’s not just cocoa beans. Prices of cocoa butter—which gives chocolate its creamy mouthfeel—and cocoa powder, responsible for flavor and color, have also hit all-time highs. KnowledgeCharts, cited by Bloomberg, puts US cocoa powder prices near $9,000 per ton, while European rates have topped $10,000.
As raw material costs soar, chocolate processors are pulling back. According to Bloomberg, cocoa processing in Europe—the largest market—fell 3.7% in Q1 2025, the lowest for this period since 2017. Asia and North America saw similar dips.
This means fewer chocolate bars on shelves, and those that remain may not look—or taste—the same.
Global giants like Hershey, Mars, and Mondelez are quietly adapting. According to the Wall Street Journal, they’ve:
Shrunk bar sizes without reducing prices
Added cheaper ingredients like nuts or wafers
Shifted focus to non-chocolate snacks and novelty items
Pushed gradual price hikes to avoid sticker shock
On Valentine’s Day this year, a Hershey’s King-Size Heart was 13% more expensive than in 2024. In the UK, a Twix Easter Egg went from 316g to 258g, while its price rose 47% year-on-year in April this yeat.
In the UAE and Saudi Arabia, where imported chocolate dominates shelves, residents are already feeling the crunch. Retailers have raised prices across leading brands, while some bulk or value packs have quietly disappeared.
"Even supermarket-brand chocolate isn't immune," says a Dubai-based food importer. "We’re seeing smaller quantities in the same packaging, and cocoa-based desserts cost more to produce now."
E-commerce shoppers on platforms like Amazon UAE and Noon are noticing rising prices for baking cocoa and confectionery items, with several items now tagged as “limited stock” or delayed.
With no quick fix in sight—aging cocoa trees take years to replace—the crisis could reshape how the world consumes chocolate. Analysts say prices may stay elevated through 2026, especially if weather patterns worsen.
“This situation is unprecedented,” said a cocoa supply analyst to Bloomberg. “It’s not just a supply chain issue—it’s a structural one.”
Bottom line for chocoholics? You’re likely to pay more for less chocolate, at least in the near future. Your favorite bars may be thinner, lighter, or filled with alternatives—but the price tag will keep climbing.
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